After a very exhausting and bearish 2022, where the price of Bitcoin (BTC) lost 64%, crypto market participants have high expectations for 2023. However, the relatively short story. trade BTC teaches that the year following the end of the previous bear market was a period of accumulation with mostly sideways price action.
However, each of these periods saw an interesting multi-month gap immediately following the BTC price macro bottom. This always resulted in a relatively large shift and within reach of a local peak, after which another correction took place. As a result, the price of BTC made a lower low on the long-term chart, after which a real bull market began.
In today’s analysis, BeInCrypto attempts to estimate the price and timing of a potential bullish move for BTC in 2023, leading to a potential bullish move. It does this based on historical data, the hypothesis of Bitcoin cycles and their similarities, and Fibonacci retracement levels.
At the same time, The analysis suggests that the $15,495 level reached on November 21, 2022 was the macro bottom. bear market current. This assumption is not necessarily true and could be quickly falsified if we see lower BTC prices in 2023. However, it is necessary to evaluate the targets of the potential bullish movement that may occur soon.
Historical Bitcoin corrections and accumulations
Looking at history trade From the price of BTC we see 4 bear markets the main ones taking place in the years 2011, 2014, 2018 and 2022. According to the bitcoin extension cycles hypothesis, each subsequent bear market lasted longer, but at the same time resulted in a smaller percentage decline in the price of BTC.
Next, we note that the declines during each bear market took the form of an ABC correction based on Elliott Wave Theory. Even The most recent bear market of 2022 can be captured in the form of this correction.
However, it must be assumed that the peak of the bull market is not reached in November 2022 at $69,000. but in April 2022, $64,500. Of course, the latter assumption leads to a rather unusual form of ABC correction. Despite this, it agrees with many technical indicators, data on the chainsocial activity and sentiment in the crypto market.
However, if one disagrees with this assumption, arguing that Bitcoin has reached a higher price in late 2021, then a bear market can be correctly expressed in the form of a 5-channel Elliott impulse. Notably, both wave count scenarios show this Current BTC price levels may correspond to the macro bottom of this cycle.
We then see that after reaching a macro bottom, Bitcoin started a stronger (2012 and 2019) or weaker (2015) up move. Drove to a local peak, always below the highest level previously recorded (green circles).
This increase was always followed by another significant correction (red circles). It created a higher low in the price of Bitcoin, ended the accumulation period and started a real bull market. It should be added that all this happened before the next one cut in half (blue lines).
Local spikes after a bear market
We can then measure the time period from the macro bottom of historical declines to the next local peak. Thus, we get the following data: 77 days in 2011-12, 175 days in 2015 and 196 days in 2019 (blue date ranges).
According to the Bitcoin extension cycles hypothesis, the next local peak after the macro bottom is reached over a longer and longer period of time. Therefore, if it were extended now, it can be assumed that it will reach the bottom after about 215 days.
However, if the cycle was not extended, then taking the average of historical periods, the next peak would appear after 150 days. This gives us the period from April 17 to June 26, 2023. This is where Bitcoin could hit a hypothetical local surge.
Additionally, we assign Fibonacci retracement levels in previous bear markets to determine the price range for this move. Historically, the bullish movement following the macro bottom of the BTC price has reached; 0.5 Fib level in 2011-12, 0.382 Fib level in 2015 and 0.618 Fib level in 2019.
Therefore, we can take the 0.382-0.618 Fibonacci range as a possible target for Bitcoin’s next upside move. This corresponds to a price range of $27,500 – $39,000.
BTC price peak at $33,000 in April 2023
Summarizing the above analysis, we get a date range of April 17 to June 26, 2023 and a price range of $27,500 to $39,000. This is the graph area (blue rectangle) where Bitcoin may reach a local peak in 2023. A correction will follow.
However, if one goes a step further to further identify the timing and price of potential growth, one can refer to the imminent; cut in half. According to the latest data, in 2018 this event is scheduled for the end of March 2024.
Historically, we notice (chart above) that the local rally after the macro bottom of the BTC price was reached 47, 52 and 46 weeks ago. cut in half (green date range), respectively.
On average, we have a 48 week period before the next one cut in halfin which the local vertex should appear. This deadline corresponds to April 24, 2023which is located in the initial part of the domain we defined.
On the other hand, regarding the predicted Bitcoin price, we can take the 0.5 Fib average retracement level as the most likely price to move higher in 2023. Complies with the approximate price of $33,000.
This level corresponds to both the historical data of previous cycles and the long-term support zone for BTC price in 2021 (blue arrows). Currently, it can be expected to act as resistance. So it probably won’t be easily overcome in one go. Therefore, it may be followed by a strong correction.
Therefore, we get bitcoin price prediction for April 24, 2023 at $33,000 (red area). It should be noted that this is a very optimistic scenario, and there is a high probability that it will not come true.
However, if the Bitcoin cycles rhyme, then cut in half still sets the pace for the entire cryptocurrency market and log Fib corrections can be trusted, then this is a feasible scenario.
Do you want to know the top 10 cryptocurrencies with the best predictions for 2023? You can see the list by clicking here.
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